MA is indeed still the best

After repeated testing and trying out various strategies, I think MA is still the best. Furthermore, there’s lots of free websites that allow us to screen using MA.

However, since I am using options, I cannot afford to follow the trend for too long. I decided to try testing the following:

1) Do not buy if either of the MACD lines is +ve
2) Sell when MACD histogram turns +ve

Test of MA is still the best

After doing a few backtests, I realise that a test of MA still presents the best opportunities. Now I just need to fine tune it… but it getting late, gotta go lalaland now….

What really really suck is that I seem to be having some problems with Amibroker. If I download data from Yahoo!, the volume is 100 times lower than the actual volume. It happens only on this laptop, not on my other 2 laptops. Weird, oh well….

Trend Following

Did some testing… Long term buy and hold is indeed highly profitable if you buy at the start of the trend… Even if you buy after the trend has started, you’ll still make a decent profit… However, if u happen to buy when the trend is experiencing a correction (before advancing further), you’ll in for some trouble….

From how I see it, GBP/USD is now consolidating… probably waiting for the 50 MA to catch up… if it does bounce up, I’ll follow it with a portion of my account….

Indeed… too good to be true

Ok, I was right… the two lines of code that I wrote in the previous post was crap… It basically means that once I reach a certain profit, I’ll sell only when the price drops to zero…. Yes, stupid mistake… but it leaves me a question….

Obviously, when I set my stop loss price to 0, my profits soar…. this is of course due to the bullish trend in EUR/USD now (I tested it on all the XXX/USD pairs)… so, if that’s the case, why don’t I just Buy and Hold…. Whenever I need spending money, I can withdraw a portion of it… I believe the overall profits will still be higher than getting in and out of trades…

I can’t answer that question, neither am I able to evaluate the risks… but here’s my thoughts:

1) This trend following strategy is extremely profitable if I enter at the start of the trend…. now may be a bit ‘late’… can test this out….

2) This is … ummmm …. a bit boring….
3) In addition, how often do I get such a new trend…. once in a few years? Given the limited pairs I can trade….

Anyway, I’ve done some more changes to my code and managed to rise the profit and the percentage of profitable trades. Basically, I programme the EA to sell whenever a 20 Pips profits turn into a loss.

Ok, I’m going to test out whether I should be a turtle (trader) now…

Too good to be True

Ok, I’ve been programming a few strategies for Metatrader 4. After repeated trials, I find that my original EA which uses the Zig Zag indicator and a bullish engulfing candlestick still gives me the best results. However, I tried to further improve the strategy, and to my surprise, 2 simple lines of codes performed miracles.

if(Bid – OrderOpenPrice() > Point*StopLoss)
OrderModify(OrderTicket(), OrderOpenPrice(), 0, OrderTakeProfit(), 0, Green);
ok, from what I understand, I’m telling the EA that if my profit is greater than my StopLoss amount, I’m no longer willing to take a loss.

This simple amendments caused my profits to skyrocket from 7k to 40k. Ridiculous. Something must be wrong somewhere…

Anyway, I’ve successfully dropped 3 of my tuition classes, which means I’ll have a lot more time now. I’m still hoping that my Fri evening class will be replaced soon. Now that my Saturday classes have ended, I’m looking forward to my weekends, first time in two years… I no longer dread Saturdays…. I’m finally going to have my weekends ‘free’.

Another strategy to programme

Being rather lazy lately, not really settled down to do any programming. But starting from next week, I’ve successfully resigned from 3 of my tuition classes… so I’m expecting to have more time for my trading next week. Hopefully, my Principal can find a replacement for my Friday night tuition class as well.

Anyway, here’s a LONG + SHORT strategy I wanna try out for Forex, on a H1 chart.

1. High for both days > 50MA – 2 pips
2. Previous day is a up day
3. Today is a down day
4. Today close in bottom 25% of yesterday
5. Previous trough below 50MA

Ok, gotta rush for work now. Why I am feeling so tired and weak???

Suggested Strategy

I’ve decided to re-program Trader Vic’s 2B strategy and test if it is profitable. Here’s the system I’m going to test:

1) Stock is below 200 MA (?)
2) Stock makes a higher high (based on Zig Zag 8%)
3) Stock breaks below the low of the highest bar (which may or may not be the bar that first breaks the previous high)

Can’t do any programming now, since my Acer laptop decided to die on me. Oh well, maybe it’s time to get a new one and to take a break for tonight.

But over the past few months, I realize I love trading, not just for the profit. No matter how tired I am, I would turn on my laptop to do my stock analysis. In fact, it has almost become a form of relaxation for me at the close of the day.

Btw, since I’ve not being blogging for some time. I think I should update my trading results.

Last month was a breakeven month, but I’ve pick some pretty good stocks.

MAR (Sold it when it was around $36).
ARTC (Actually I missed this, but I almost sold it at about $46… well, almost)

There are other stocks, but not as successful.. e.g. ENDP…