Let My Intuition Take Charge

I’ve yet to find a mechanical way to filter out the wrong signals. But I know it’s somewhere in my subconscious. I felt ‘uneasy’ when I opened those losing positions. I know there is a reason for that, but I can’t really pin it down. Maybe it is because the monthly candle is up, but I can’t afford to filter out all such trades, cause that contradicts the logic behind this strategy. Anyway, the best I can ‘mechanicalize’ it is the following:

1. Look out for danger Signs (Doji/hesitation on high volume, Engulfing 10% etc, double bottom etc)
2. The MA should be sloping downwards (at least 10% below peak)
3. Stock should preferably hit strong resistance/prior support (look back 3 years)

Trying too hard

I think I am trying too hard again…. I’ve been looking at charts for the past few hours, hoping to find a way to filter the wrong signals out. I’m not the sort who likes to give up, but I know the answers will never be revealed by staring too hard. Moreover, I have too little data to analyse. Anyway, here are some possible suggestions:

1. Don’t sell if the current price is above previous month’s body
2. Don’t sell if the current price is above previous daily Zig Zag
3. Can sell if resistance (3 times) is spotted
4. Monitor weekly chart and determine if 3/4 of the recent 4 weeks are ‘positive’ weeks. (i.e. rise on lower volume and fall on higher volume)
5. Don’t sell if above MA(50)
6. Up to discretion – Danger Signs (Doji/hesitation on high volume, Engulfing 10%, Double Bottom etc)

This strategy requires a high hit rate, cause the profit/trade is pretty low.

NVDA

Nearly sold NVDA at around the price level indicated in the chart below.

Lesson:

1. Set a condition for selling (such as: do not sell above candle of concern)
2. Dark cloud cover may not be very reliable.

Monthly chart of NVDA

Daily Chart of NVDA